The Thai Ministry of Public Health said on July 30 that the country can keep new daily Covid-19 fatalities from reaching 200 with accelerated vaccination and two months of lockdown measures.

Opas Karnkawinpong, Director-General of the Thai Department of Disease Control. (Photo: Bangkok Post)

The ministry’s latest mathematical model shows that without the tight restrictions now in place, new daily COVID-19 cases would exceed 40,000 by September 14 and fatalities would pass 500 a day by September 28, said Opas Karnkawinpong, Director-General of the Department of Disease Control.

The current measures took effect in 13 hard-hit provinces including Bangkok on July 20 and are scheduled to end on August 2. Authorities are now considering extending the lockdowns.

The department’s analysis looked at the trend in infections and deaths based on one- and two-month lockdowns from July 20.

If one month of lockdown measures — people staying home, working from home and a ban on public gatherings — can reduce infections by 20 percent, new daily cases would still be over 30,000 in early October, the model shows. New fatalities would peak somewhere below 500 on October 26, Opas was cited by Bangkok Post as saying.

The country reported 17,345 new cases and 117 deaths on July 30.

If lockdown measures reduce infections by 20-25 percent but last two months, new daily cases would be above 20,000 in October and November and fatalities would peak below 400 in mid-November.

The numbers improve significantly if two months of restrictions are complemented by stepped-up vaccination for elderly people, pregnant women and those with chronic health conditions, which the government is now conducting. In such a case, new daily fatalities would be still be over 100 but would decline gradually, Opas said.

Source: VNA