The El Nino weather pattern is likely to develop in the second half of 2023 and could contribute to rising global temperatures, according to a new update from the National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting.

Early forecasts suggest that El Niño conditions are likely (70-80% chance) to develop in late May or early June and persist until early 2024.

The May average sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region was 0.4 degree Celsius higher than the long-term average, the national forecasters said on Monday afternoon.

The return of the El Niño climate phenomenon can affect weather in Viet Nam.

In El Nino years, an average of 5 tropical storms and depressions hit the country each year, about 28% less than the previous-year average.

During El Nino, tropical storms and depressions usually arrive in the country in July, August, and September. The national weather service forecasts that the number of cold waves hitting our country will be less than usual, equivalent to only 70% of the figure in previous years. Cold wave conditions are expected to end in Viet Nam earlier than usual.

El Niño usually results in higher than average temperatures in our country. The average temperature of every month is likely to be higher than normal. El Niño has its strongest impact during winter as the average temperatures are much higher during the winter season than the summer. The southern Viet Nam could experience stronger impacts of El Niño than the northern region. The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records in many places.

El Niño causes less rain to fall across the country as El Niño conditions typically causes a decrease of 25-50% in precipitation in our country, especially in North Central Coast. The El Nino drives substantial variability in rainfall in Viet Nam. Some El Niño episodes in previous years had had  a greater number of extreme precipitation events than normal as they have brought the largest amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period and brought drought conditions to some places during many consecutive months.

Reporting by NAM TRAN – translating by H.L